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Speaker: Creties Jenkins, Partner at Rose and Associates
Topic: How Not to Squander Billions on Your Next Unconventional Venture
Date: Wednesday, December 18th, 2019 at 11:30 AM
Location: Brookhaven College Geological Institute, (Map)
Cost: $25 if SPE member paying electronically in advance, all others $30
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Over the past 5 years, 200 North American oil and gas companies with nearly 110 billion dollars in debt have filed for bankruptcy. Many of these failures can be traced to a focus on production attainment instead of value creation, and pushing ahead with development before understanding whether the average well will be economic.
To mitigate these errors, opportunities should be evaluated using a staged approach and probabilistic tools including trumpet plots, confidence curves, and sequential aggregation plots. These tools help quantify the expected production variance and the number of appraisal wells needed to be confident of an economic development.
Most importantly, the process can be optimized to help ensure that if the project fails, it does so in the early stages when capital investments are relatively small. It’s also critical to document this work, compare it to your results, and make adjustments to do an even better job of delivering what’s promised next time.
Creties Jenkins (P.E., P.G.) is a Partner with Rose and Associates where he specializes in the characterization of unconventional reservoirs. Creties has carried-out integrated studies, field development planning, technical assurance, and resource assessment work for more than 50 companies around the world and has conducted more than 100 industry courses and workshops over the past decade. Creties has served as a technical editor, distinguished lecturer, and distinguished author for SPE and is a co-author of SPEE Monograph 4: Estimating Ultimate Recovery of Developed Wells in Low-Permeability Reservoirs. Creties has previously worked for Tenneco, ARCO, and DeGolyer and MacNaughton in his 30+ year career.