Brad Berg

Characterizing Shale Plays—The Importance of Recognizing What You Don’t Know

Understanding the uncertainty in individual well performance is particularly critical during the

exploration drilling program where there are relatively few wells on which to base decisions.

Key questions during the early phases include "How many wells do I need to drill before I have

confidence in the results?" and "Does the well performance I’ve seen to date provide the

encouragement needed to keep drilling?" Understanding the uncertainty in well performance,

and planning for it will lead to more efficient exploration activity and better informed decisionmaking.