Making good decisions under uncertainty

When:  May 22, 2014 from 09:00 AM to 05:00 PM (UTC)

Effective management of uncertainties and life-cycle risks is critical to the success of oil and gas projects and is, in fact, the central challenge of the E&P business. This seminar has been designed to allow SPE members to share examples and anecdotal experience of making decisions under high subsurface and surface uncertainty and risk associated. It will summarise the interaction between different elements affecting critical decisions in the oil and gas industry and clarify the distinctions between technical and organisational complexity when choosing between different development options. There will be a review of high stake decisions in organisationally complex settings, from drilling through to reservoir modelling up to economics


Agenda

Time

Talk and Speaker

08:30 - 09:15

Registration & Coffee

 09:30


Pete Naylor, Principal Consultant Petroleum Engineer, BG Group, “Optimising the Glenelg & West Franklin development: a Decision Risk Analysis case study”.
 

10.15


Morning Coffee Break 

10.30


Alejandro Primera, Director/Reservoir Engineering Consultant – Primera Reservoir LTD, "Use and abuse of Experimental Design to better capture reservoir uncertainty in simulation studies". 

11.15


Joe Pumphrey, Managing Director, Logicom E&P (UK), "The 10 commandments of Monte Carlo simulation"

12.00


Lunch

12.45


John McIntosh, Managing Director, Eikos Project Systems, "Managing uncertainty in well time and drilling cost estimates" .

13.30

Martha Stunell, Senior Reservoir Engineer, Schlumberger, "Case Study

14.15


Afternoon Coffee Break

15.00


Geof Boyd, Independent Consultant, "Decision making under irrationality"

15.45- 17.00


Expert Panel Session: Decision Making process. What are we missing and how to fill the gaps? 

Interactive Session with StratigicFit: StratigicFit will finish the day with a discussion on the distinctions between technical and organisational complexity in decision making and will open the floor for the opportunity to share examples and anecdotal experiences 

Atul Patel - Nexen - Facilities 

Jonathan Ovens - JX Nippon - Senior Reservoir Engineer

Pete Naylor - BG Group 


Location

London Geological Society
Burlington House
Picadilly
London, W1J 0BG
United Kingdom

Contact

Kate McMillan