My Own Worst Enemy – A Journey Toward Taming Overconfidence in Reserves Estimates
Can we truly rely on reserves reports? When a proved reserves report is signed and stamped, the implicit message is one of confidence – a conviction that actual forecasts will exceed projections with a high likelihood (~90% probability). Yet, the paradox emerges: why do we frequently observe well results falling short of these expectations? A fundamental truth surfaces – a deeply ingrained human inclination toward overconfidence in our predictions.
In this presentation, Rob Quigley will discuss the topic that reserves estimators need to start confronting - despite our best efforts, a natural tendency toward overconfidence persists. This truth will be revealed in hard data from SEC reserves disclosures!
Embark on a journey of discovery as Rob offers a compelling proposition for mitigating this inherent bias and elevating the accuracy of reserves estimates.
Be prepared to have your own ability to account for uncertainty put to the test.
Rob Quigley is a Managing Director at VSO and Head of the Dallas Office. He joined the firm in 2014 and leads a team to provide petroleum engineering consulting services to clients. Rob has extensive evaluation experience in every major basin in the Lower 48 and Gulf of Mexico providing both reserves reports and technical due diligence to E&P and financial firms.
Prior to joining VSO, Rob was a part of Encana Oil & Gas and served in Encana’s Mid Continent business unit. Rob is a 2013 graduate of Texas A&M University (Magna Cum Laude) with a B.S. Degree in Petroleum Engineering. He is a Member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), Dallas Petroleum Club, Petroleum Engineers Club of Dallas, and ADAM Energy Forum – Dallas. Mr. Quigley has co-authored an SPE technical papers on the topic of horizontal well spacing (URTeC: 5058).