SPE JAPAN welcomed Mr. James Gouveia, the 3rd distinguished lecturer this term, at JAPEX Tokyo headquarter on Thursday, April 20, 2017.
Theme： "Fooled by Randomness: Improving Decision Making With Limited Data"
Bio：Abs Bios_James Gouveia.pdf
Mr. Gouveia gave a very informative speech on evaluation of resource plays, especially shale gas.
Exploiting a shale gas field is similar to rolling a die. Some wells perform good but some wells right next to the good ones can perform really bad, and all the drilling attempts seem independent of each other.
Here, we consider a six-sided die. Its expectation is 3.5. However, if you try a Monte Carlo simulation on the process, it requires so many iterations to see convergence of the cumulative average at some degree.
This example teaches us that it is non-sense to judge a shale gas field just by drilling a few wells. Indeed, we will never be able to find out the real performance of the field until drilling enormous amount of wells.
Mr. Gouveia introduced some useful statistical approaches to evaluate and keep track of the field performance, EUR or IP in other word, by picking and comparing with an analogy.
Related SPE paper is SPE-175527, "Validating Analog Production Type Curves for Resource Plays," which is also good reading.
SPE JAPAN is glad to have him as one of the distinguished lecturer this year. We appreciate his visit to Japan.
Pic-1.A Scene fromthe seminar