Summary:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its annual
World Energy Outlook (WEO) for 2015. The WEO is regarded by many as the most
authoritative, independent annual assessment of global energy trends, and is
thus an important publication to energy policy makers, industry, NGOs and other
energy sector stakeholders worldwide. The IEA has a scenario based approach to
projecting energy trajectories for the world and its key regions. The falling
fossil fuel prices and climate change on the eve of COP21 in Paris are the focus
items of the WEO 2015.
Key WEO messages:
1. Global energy demand is expected to rise by one-third by
2040 and the world needs to move to a lower-carbon and more energy efficient
system. While energy efficiency is increasing, there is a large untapped
potential to raise energy efficiency further.
2. Low oil prices of around $50/bbl could
last until 2020 but the central scenario projection foresees that the oil market
rebalances at $80/bbl by 2020. Complacency in this time of low prices puts
energy security at risk.
3. Among the fossil fuels, natural gas -
the least-carbon intensive - is the only one that increases its share in the
global energy mix. The main demand growth will occur in developing Asia, where
gas also sees completion from renewables and coal.
4. lndia (the special focus item in the
WEO-2015) contributes the single largest share of growth, around one-quarter, in
global energy demand. Thus, there is a shared interest to support India's push
towards a low-carbon energy system.
5. Energy policies, as formulated today,
lead to a slower increase in energy-related CO2 emissions, but not the full
de-coupling from economic growth and the absolute decline in emissions necessary
to meet the 2 °C target. COP21 needs to send a strong message and secure
progressively stronger climate commitments over time, if the world is to keep to
an emissions trajectory consistent with the 2 °C goal
The speaker:
Markus Klingbeil, joined the IEA as a secondee from Shell
International E&P in early 2015 and coauthored the World Energy Outlook
2015 and the 2015 WEO Special Climate report. In this edition he was responsible
for the chapter dedicated to shale gas. Markus joined Shell in 1996 as reservoir
engineer and since then worked in several technical and managerial roles,
ranging from drilling operations and reservoir modeling in the Southern North
Sea, petroleum engineer and economist in the Middle East and Gulf of Mexico,
business and strategy analyst and reserves coordinator in the Shell head quarter
in The Hague and lately, lead for shale gas development and reserve assessments
in the Appalachian Basin, eastern United States.