The oil market is volatile and efforts to predict its trajectory have tended to fail miserably, leading many to think such efforts are futile. But while politics and policy decision play a role in determining oil supply and prices, it is possible to reduce the uncertainty substantially. The biggest problem is the misinterpretation of short-term and transient effects for permanent changes and changes due to policy decisions as being caused by physical effects. The embrace of invalid theories by too many analysts, even where the historical record contradicts them, is particularly troubling and shows how superficial the understanding of too many in industry, academia, and government. More detailed examination suggests that the price of oil could remain low for some time to come.
Where: Auditorium (A200) at Schlumberger-Doll Research,
When: 11:00AM on Wednesday November 16, 2016
Michael C. Lynch is president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a Massachusetts-based consultancy. He held a number of research positions at M.I.T. and was chief energy economist at DRI-WEFA. He currently blogs at forbes.com, and his publications have appeared in six languages. Praeger published his book The Peak Oil Scare and the Coming Oil Flood in July 2016.